FMI changes forecast for Jyväskylä - summer on hold again

Where is summer in Finland? When will it arrive? Well, after predictions last Thursday and Friday by the Finnish Meteorological Institute it appeared that warmer temperatures above 20C would finally arrive in Central Finland tomorrow and Wednesday. On Saturday May 30, however, the slate was wiped clean and no longer was there the potential for the 25C barrier to be broken this week. Now the coming 10 days look more like what has been seen in Jyväskylä during the recent two weeks.

Such dramatic changes in forecasts are not that rare in the world of meteorology, especially for weather four or more days in advance, but this particular change is very disheartening. The potential for days above 25C in Jyväskylä ranges from mid-May until the very beginning of September, and for every day that we delve deeper into the summer without such weather, the less hopeful people are that it will come.

Despite the lack of 20C-plus days, Saturday May 30 was a beautiful day in Jyväskylä. It reached a top of 18.1C at Tikkakoski in the afternoon, making it the equal fourth highest maximum seen so far this year.

Another forecast error occurred on the last day of May. On the 30th there were predictions for rain during the morning and middle of the day for Sunday. These predictions on Saturday night had a confidence level of 90% and showed the potential for more than 5mm. A small band of rain did move north through Western Finland, but it was much less widespread than the predictive images shown through FMI's rain radar on Saturday night. In the end, nothing at all was recorded at Jyväskylä Airport.

The rest of Sunday also turned out quite nicely. The 16.7C maximum was more than 2C above Saturday's temperature prediction and pushed the run of consecutive days above 15C to seven.

Sunshine on dandelion flowers in Jyväskylä during the afternoon of May 31

According to forecasts now, tomorrow looks likely to be the warmest day of the next 10. Saturday June 6 could reach 17C, but all other days up until June 10 aren't predicted to go higher than 16C.

This kind of weather isn't really that unusual for Finland. Summers can be highly unpredictable and often have cool periods. Even the back half of June last year, for example, saw a 12 day run below 18C. At least in 2014's case, by June 12 Jyväskylä had already seen 15 days above 20C, seven of which also exceeded 25C. Let's hope warmer temperatures arrive in Jyväskylä soon...