Tuesday, 19 May 2015

Contrasting averages for both cities so far this May

The first 19 days of May in 2015 have led to some contrasting averages for both Sydney and Jyväskylä compared to recent years. The two standout figures of the four are the average minimum at Sydney Airport, which has been well above figures since 2009, and the average maximum for Jyväskylä, which is on its way to the coolest recording of the past seven years.

Progressive average minimum for May at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2015 plus the long term average

The progression of the average minimum has been unusual this year and, not surprisingly, it's above the long term average. May 2 and 3 saw the two highest minimums for May at the Airport since at least 2009. Even though May 14's 7.3C minimum was the lowest since 2011, the warm minimums have propped up the average. If those two recordings more normal, the average for 2015 would currently be sitting closer to that of 2013 and 2014. Forecasts show the average continuing to hover around 13C at least for the next week.

Progressive average maximum for May at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2015 plus the long term average

The average maximum at Sydney Airport so far this month has been closer to normal. This is despite May 5 recording the seventh highest May temperature on record at the Airport. The 28.6C maximum was the highest May temperature since 2007. Other than 2007, only Mays in 1942, 1957 and 1994 recorded a higher maximum. It is actually the only maximum above 25C in the month so far though. The final average for the month will likely sit among the majority of recent years between 20C and 21C.

Progressive average maximum for May at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2015

Jyväskylä's relatively cool start to May has led to the average maximum dipping below all other years bar 2014 up until today. 2014's cold start made way for almost record highs on this exact day one year ago though and the dramatic increase in the average from the 16th is evident in the graph above. Unlike 2014, however, it doesn't look like Jyväskylä will be seeing any maximums at those levels. The forecast up until May 28 doesn't even show one day above 20C. If the predictions are correct, May 2015 will definitely have the lowest average since 2009.

Progressive average minimum for May at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2015

While the average maximum is on its way to the lowest of the past few years, the average minimum is looking likely to record the highest figure since 2009. Only two minimums have been below zero at this point of the month. This is lower than the whole of any May between 2009 and 2014. The 10 day forecast currently doesn't show any minimums below 5C either. Up until today, there have also been seven figures above 5C. 2010 had seen the same amount, but other years had a lower number of occurrences.

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