Tuesday, 18 November 2014

November 2014 progress fairly average compared to previous years

Sydney has seen some pretty unusual daily maximums so far this November. After a 37.0C recording on November 1, the hottest day of the year to that date, the Airport went on to record 12 straight daily maximums between 21.2C and 26.0C. That consistent run, however, and the fact that all 18 days of the month have registered a top above 20C, have ensured that the average maximum has remained above 24C. November 14's 38.0C maximum jumped the average almost 1C, and after 18 days of the month it sits at 25.3C, equal with the figure from 2009. 

A very warm run of weather in the coming week, which currently includes four days with a forecast above 30C, should help November 2014's average stay in touch with 2009. The average maximum from that year of 27.2C is the current record for the Airport. Next on the list is the 26.7C reading from 1968.

Progressive average maximum for November at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Minimums at Sydney Airport have been fairly average compared to those seen in the previous five years. 2010, 2011 and 2012 had already seen a minimum above 20C by this point, but the lowest temperature of this month so far of 13.2C sits above the respective figure from 2010, 2012 and 2013.

Current predictions for the coming week also suggest the average minimum to sit just below 2009 with only a few days of the month remaining.

Progressive average minimum for November at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Daily maximums in Jyväskylä so far this month have also been a little odd compared to previous years. They have either been rather warm for this time of year, or then below zero. After 18 days of the month in 2014, Jyväskylä has seen only two days where the maximum was between 0C and 5C. There have been eight days apiece for maximums below 0C and above 5C.

In the end, it's not that surprising to see that the progression of 2014's average maximum has been in the middle of previous years. After 18 days it is currently the third lowest figure, almost smack bang in the middle of the highest figure from 2011 and the lowest figure from 2009.

Current 10 day forecasts suggest that maximums will continue just below zero. If that is the case until the end of the month, the average maximum for November 2014 will decline in a fairly similar fashion to that seen in the past two or three days and rank as the second coldest since at least 2008.

Progressive average maximum for November at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2008-2014

The average minimum at Jyväskylä Airport currently sits at -1.4C, again almost right in the middle of the progressive averages from 2009 and 2011. More than half of the 18 days have gone below 0C, but the -9.5C minimum from November 1 remains the coldest. Only two other days have dropped below -5C. November 3 and 4 saw the two highest November minimums seen since at least 2009, meaning the average has remained a little higher despite the sub-zero temperatures.

With minimum temperatures predicted to remain below 0C, but not drop below -5C probably until the end of next week, the average for November 2014 looks like it'll end up somewhere similar to that of 2008.

Progressive average minimum for November at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2008-2014

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