Slight change in temperatures this week

After a decent run below zero, temperatures in Jyväskylä climbed above the mark earlier this week on Monday. Other than a brief drop to -0.1C on Tuesday, they've remained on the plus side of the scale since then. Tuesday's 2.0C maximum was the warmest since November 12 and yesterday's 1.6C minimum was the first above zero in just over two weeks.

The recent figures aren't really at either the extreme end of hot or cold, but they are above average for this time of year. For some comparison though, November 27 in 2010 recorded daily figures ranging from -15.8C to -10.0C, while November 25 in 2011 recorded daily numbers of -1.9C and 7.0C.

Another interesting observation from the past couple of weeks is that since November 12, not one day has seen a difference between the minimum and maximum exceed 5C. November 20's 4.4C difference is the highest in the two week period, and excluding that figure the average difference is only 1.8C. This has meant very consistent temperatures during each day with very little fluctuation. During the whole period the lowest temperature recorded has been -5.9C, while the highest is yesterday's maximum of 2.8C, meaning a difference of only 8.7C between November 13 and 27.

The warmer temperatures this week have caused pretty much all of the snow that was on the ground to disappear. Only a few isolated clumps remain around the city. There has been a bit of drizzle around this week as well. Tuesday, yesterday and today have seen respective figures of 1.1mm, 0.6mm and 1.0mm.

Sun? Well almost. November 27 started off dry but drizzle arrived later in the afternoon.

Sydney Airport saw its coolest day of the month today. It reached only 21.1C just before 2pm this afternoon, just below November 6's maximum of 21.2C. It also ended an eight day streak above 25C. It does mean, however, that Sydney Airport has currently not recorded a daily maximum below 20C this November.

Only twice before in the station's 76 year history has this happened for the month of November. 1997 was the most recent occurrence when the lowest daily maximum was 20.2C. 1972 was the other with a figure of 20.0C. With only a few days of the month remaining and forecasts showing daily highs at 24C tomorrow and 27C and 30C for the weekend, this will be a new record for Sydney Airport.

This current run of maximums above 20C has also extended to 37 days. The highest such streak in the second half of a year since 2009 is 50 days. November 7 to December 26 of 2010 all recorded maximums above 20C. 2013 had the second highest number with 43, while 2009 had the lowest with 25. Based on current forecasts, 2014 will at least surpass 2013's figure.

One thing that I missed last week was that November 20 was the first day with a minimum above 20C since the last summer season. March 26 was the previous occurrence. November 20 is actually the equal latest date for such a recording in the years since 2009. 2009 also recorded its first minimum above 20C on November 20. Other years recorded their first occurrence in early November, although 2013 saw it already on October 23.

Lastly, Brisbane was hit by a very powerful storm this afternoon. Very strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain struck the city area. There were reports of it being the strongest storm in more than a decade. The Brisbane weather station recorded almost 40mm in only 30 minutes from 4:30pm onwards. Images can be found here while some video footage can be seen below.

Very warm weather in Sydney, a bit of snow and around zero in Jyväskylä

Warm summery temperatures continued in Sydney today with the sixth consecutive day above 25C. Four of the past six have also either been at or exceeded 30C. Showers and storm activity arrived this afternoon though.

Friday November 21 was especially hot. The daily maximum equalled the second highest seen this month and year, as it got to 37.0C at the Airport. It was hotter in the west. Badgerys Creek saw a top of 39.6C, Penrith 40.5C, while Richmond topped the region with 40.7C. Observatory Hill was a little cooler at 33.9C.

Saturday was a little cooler even though it still topped 26.1C at the Airport. On Sunday Western Sydney experienced even hotter temperatures than on Friday. Penrith recorded a reading of 44.9C. Records only began at the Penrith Lakes station in 1995, but this was the fifth highest measurement on record. At Richmond the mercury pushed to 45.3C. This was only the second time in that station's 21 year history to go above 45C. It was much cooler on the coast though. Observatory Hill only got to 30.1C while it reached 33.0C at the Airport.

Sydney Airport reached 30.0C this afternoon and it was warm across the city once again. Showers and storms had been building west of the Blue Mountains though and they arrived around 4pm. It had been just over a week at the Airport without a drop of rain. The initial burst didn't bring much and even by midnight only 1.6mm had been recorded. Additional rain, however, is currently passing through the city and another 0.8mm has been seen up until 3:30am.

Other locations around Sydney experienced more rain and stronger wind gusts. The RAAF base at Williamtown, just north of Newcastle, recorded a 98km/h gust at 4:48pm. Only 18 minutes earlier a gust of 19km/h was measured. Temperatures dropped 7C there in a only few minutes also as a storm cell passed through the area.

The view of the November 24 storm from North Ryde
Source: Reddit user InnerCityTrendy - Imgur

Temperatures in Jyväskylä remained below zero from late on November 19 until this morning. Both the 20th and 21st dipped below -5C for the first time in two weeks. The 21st only went as high as -3.9C and, based on current forecasts, will probably remain as the coldest day this month. It was also the lowest maximum since the -4.8C recording from February 6.

Like Sydney Airport, Tikkakoski went several days without any precipitation; six in total. Such a stretch was last seen more than a month ago. It ended on Saturday as snow fell in the early hours of the morning. A total of 1.6mm was recorded during the day and led to maybe 2cm of snow around the centre of Jyväskylä. An additional 0.1mm yesterday took the monthly total to 47.8mm.

Jääpallo (bandy) practice at Viitaniemi Field in Jyväskylä on November 22

Temperatures climbing above zero today to almost 1C have led to slosh and much of the snow disappearing. Conditions in Jyväskylä recently have been very cloudy. It has been just over three weeks since clear sky was seen over the city. I can't recall even seeing a bit of sun since the sunny weather on November 1.

November not giving any hints for the coming winter in Jyväskylä

As I mentioned yesterday in the November progression post, daily maximums in Jyväskylä this month, despite being somewhat average in the long run, have been a bit strange compared to previous years.

Warm days were common in the first 12 days of the month with eight of those exceeding 5C. The warmest November temperature since 2005 was also seen. Other than that though, maximums have been mostly below 0C. In between temperatures have been rare. Only three days have recorded maximums between 0C and 5C, and those three readings were all below 1C. This differs quite a lot from the previous six Novembers.

As the graph below shows, there have been eight days apiece for maximums below 0C and above 5C so far this November. The below 0C figure is clearly the highest of the past seven years, while the 2014 figure for days above 5C sits fairly high also, alongside 2011 and 2013.

Number of daily maximums at various levels at Jyväskylä Airport as of November 19 for the years 2008-2014

I've been looking at the daily figures quite closely since mid-September, trying to see if there's a connection between the warmer years and the cooler years, but 2014 doesn't seem to want to give itself away just yet.

As I've mentioned before, both 2011 and 2013 carried their rather warm October and November temperatures into December, and even into early January of the following year. The columns for 2011 and 2013 in the graph above are quite similar.

In contrast, 2009, 2010 and 2012 saw fewer days above 5C at this time of the year, with both 2009 and 2010 recording the second and third most number of days below 0C. Each of these three years went on to record very cold Decembers.

2008 saw a comparatively cold November despite recording only one maximum below zero, but the subsequent December was similar to those seen in 2011 and 2013.

Let's have a look at the minimums for the first 19 days of November in the past seven years.

Number of daily minimums at various levels at Jyväskylä Airport as of November 19 for the years 2008-2014

The columns for 2014 in the above graph look a lot more similar to those of 2009 and 2010. 2012 is somewhat surprising here as December was cold even from the very beginning. Temperatures did drop towards the end of November in that year though.

2011 and 2013 unsurprisingly have tall red columns, the number of the days with a minimum above 0C, with either only one or no days below -5C after the 19th day of the month.

If we based a winter prediction solely on the graphs above, it would be fair to say that the winter of 2014/15 will be a cold one. Long term forecasts released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), however, predict a warmer than normal winter. Northern Europe is forecast to see temperatures a couple of degrees above average.

November 2014 progress fairly average compared to previous years

Sydney has seen some pretty unusual daily maximums so far this November. After a 37.0C recording on November 1, the hottest day of the year to that date, the Airport went on to record 12 straight daily maximums between 21.2C and 26.0C. That consistent run, however, and the fact that all 18 days of the month have registered a top above 20C, have ensured that the average maximum has remained above 24C. November 14's 38.0C maximum jumped the average almost 1C, and after 18 days of the month it sits at 25.3C, equal with the figure from 2009. 

A very warm run of weather in the coming week, which currently includes four days with a forecast above 30C, should help November 2014's average stay in touch with 2009. The average maximum from that year of 27.2C is the current record for the Airport. Next on the list is the 26.7C reading from 1968.

Progressive average maximum for November at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Minimums at Sydney Airport have been fairly average compared to those seen in the previous five years. 2010, 2011 and 2012 had already seen a minimum above 20C by this point, but the lowest temperature of this month so far of 13.2C sits above the respective figure from 2010, 2012 and 2013.

Current predictions for the coming week also suggest the average minimum to sit just below 2009 with only a few days of the month remaining.

Progressive average minimum for November at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Daily maximums in Jyväskylä so far this month have also been a little odd compared to previous years. They have either been rather warm for this time of year, or then below zero. After 18 days of the month in 2014, Jyväskylä has seen only two days where the maximum was between 0C and 5C. There have been eight days apiece for maximums below 0C and above 5C.

In the end, it's not that surprising to see that the progression of 2014's average maximum has been in the middle of previous years. After 18 days it is currently the third lowest figure, almost smack bang in the middle of the highest figure from 2011 and the lowest figure from 2009.

Current 10 day forecasts suggest that maximums will continue just below zero. If that is the case until the end of the month, the average maximum for November 2014 will decline in a fairly similar fashion to that seen in the past two or three days and rank as the second coldest since at least 2008.

Progressive average maximum for November at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2008-2014

The average minimum at Jyväskylä Airport currently sits at -1.4C, again almost right in the middle of the progressive averages from 2009 and 2011. More than half of the 18 days have gone below 0C, but the -9.5C minimum from November 1 remains the coldest. Only two other days have dropped below -5C. November 3 and 4 saw the two highest November minimums seen since at least 2009, meaning the average has remained a little higher despite the sub-zero temperatures.

With minimum temperatures predicted to remain below 0C, but not drop below -5C probably until the end of next week, the average for November 2014 looks like it'll end up somewhere similar to that of 2008.

Progressive average minimum for November at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2008-2014

Very hot in Sydney today, holding steady below zero in Jyväskylä

Today saw the highest temperature at Sydney Airport in almost two years. Forecasts for the city predicted a top of 33C, and while Observatory Hill was close to that with a top of 32.2C, Sydney Airport smashed that prediction by 5C as it soared to 38.0C this afternoon.

The 38.0C maximum jumped over the 37.0C from November 1 as the hottest temperature of the year so far. It also exceeded the previous hottest day from last December when it reached 37.8C. That makes today the hottest at the Airport since the record high of 46.4C from January 18 last year. It was also the hottest November temperature for the Airport since November 22 in 2009.

Sydney's west was even hotter. The weather stations at Badgerys Creek, Camden, Horsley Park, Richmond and Penrith, as well as Williamtown, just north of Newcastle, all recorded maximums above 40C. This was the first day since last summer that exceeded 40C in all of those locations. For example, Penrith's last day above 40C was January 18. The daily top for the Sydney region was shared by Penrith and Richmond with a recording of 40.9C.

A strong southerly change hit the city late this evening. A gust of 83km/h was recorded at the Airport just after 9pm. Temperatures dropped around 10C over the course of an hour. This was the strongest gust so far this month.

The hot weather seen today was a bit sudden after a fairly cool period since the first day of the month. Sydney Airport went 12 days without exceeding 26.1C; the first time for such a figure during a November since 2001. Dry weather has also continued. Today marked the ninth straight day without rain. It shouldn't continue too much longer though as rain is forecast late tomorrow and for Sunday.

Temperatures ducked back below zero in Jyväskylä late on Wednesday afternoon. Since then they have remained below the mark, other than a brief period yesterday when it reached 0.0C exactly. It hasn't been too cold though, with this morning's -2.5C the coldest since last Saturday November 8. That has meant a temperature fluctuation of less than 2C today.

The city has received a very light dusting of snow since Wednesday evening. A small amount of precipitation has been recorded at Tikkakoski on each of the three days from Wednesday until today. That pushes the current rain day streak to six. Tuesday November 11 saw 10.2mm, beating the 10.1mm from November 4 as the highest daily total so far this month. It was also the highest daily total in just over three weeks.

Few days of snow in Jyväskylä, a little cooler in Sydney

The first decent snowfall for the 2014/15 winter period arrived in Jyväskylä at the end of last week. Snow started falling just after midnight on Friday the 7th and continued into the morning and past midday. By the middle of Friday afternoon there was around 8cm in Jyväskylä and its surrounding areas.

Low temperatures between Thursday and Saturday, which led to the first string of three consecutive days below -1C since March 18 to 20, helped the snow remain, but warm, at first westerly and then southerly, winds in the early hours of Sunday pushed temperatures above zero. They continued to climb throughout the day and topped 5.3C just before midnight last night.

Overnight temperatures weren't especially low during that three day period from the 6th to the 8th. They hovered around -2C, with -3.1C and -2.6C the figures for the 7th and 8th. Going back to the statistic of three consecutive days below -1C; since 2009, only 2012 had seen such an occurrence this early in the winter period. In contrast, the winter of 2011/12 didn't see it happen until the New Year.

Precipitation from the snowfall on Friday amounted to 5.3mm. Humid and misty air on Sunday also contributed 0.8mm to the monthly total, which now stands at 30.1mm. That's already more than half the long term average for November of 54mm.

After temperatures climbed yesterday they have remained above 3C until at least 8pm today. The warmth has meant that almost all of the snow from last Friday has melted.

Snow in Jyväskylä on the afternoon of November 7

The first decent snow for the season led to good coverage through most of Central Finland

Sydney Airport registered its ninth consecutive day below 26.1C today. Such a run for November hasn't been seen since the latter part of the month in 2003. The streak is likely to continue for at least another two days with forecasts in the low to mid-20s until Friday. The last streak of 11 or more such days was in 2001. The first 16 days of that November failed to exceed 25.3C.

On the other hand, despite not reaching 26.0C more than twice so far this month, there have been no days that failed to top 20C. 2005 was the last November in which all of the first 10 days exceeded 20C. If we look at minimums, today's 17.7C was the third warmest of the month. The figures so far this month haven't been exceptionally high or low.

More storm activity was seen in Sydney on November 5. Sydney Airport recorded 3.8mm, pushing the monthly total to 5.0mm. Once again, other locations throughout the Sydney region received higher levels as isolated pockets of the storm dumped heavy rain. Since last Wednesday though, there hasn't been any rain seen at the Airport. Since 1961, only five Novembers had seen a drier start to the month. A total of 16 Novembers since 1929 had seen drier starts.

October 2014 Review - Jyväskylä

Jyväskylä's October in 2014 was a month of ups and downs. There was warmth early in the month before some of the coldest October temperatures of the past decade arrived. They quickly recovered though and the month ended very warm with three days above 10C. Despite the high daily maximums, low minimums assisted Jyväskylä in recording its second coldest October since 2003. There were no solid snowfalls but precipitation was above average.

The averages from the previous six Octobers can be seen below.

October averages at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2014

The Finnish Meteorological Institute recorded an overall October average for Jyväskylä of 2.8C. This is 0.8C below the 1981-2010 average of 3.6C. Since 2000 there have been six years with a below average figure. 2014's ranks as the fourth coldest of those. Most of Finland recorded a below average month. Only the south west of the country saw an average above normal. Rain distribution was a little different. The south and north saw totals well below average, but Central Finland, particularly the west coast stretching from Pietarsaari to Oulu with 140% of the average, was very wet.

A cold change that arrived in the middle of the month and lasted a week and a half was responsible for the lowest October temperatures seen in Jyväskylä since at least 2009. There were three days which dipped below -10C. Between 2009 and 2013 this happened only once; October 28 in 2012 saw a low of -10.1C. 2014's three below -10C measurements were led by the -13.6C recording on the 23rd. The day earlier saw a low of -11.0C and it dropped to -10.4C on the 18th.

The two lowest October daily maximums of the past six years were also seen last month. The 22nd didn't climb higher than -3.4C. The 23rd saw it reach -3.0C. The lowest such recording between 2009 and 2013 was the -2.0C reading from the 26th in 2012.

The highest temperature seen during the month was 12.9C on the 9th. This was the third warmest such figure since 2009. The highest minimum was also the third warmest. October 10 didn't see it go below 7.8C.

Some contrasting statistics for October this year compared to the previous five years include the fact that there were seven days that topped 10C. This was the equal second highest number of occurrences in the years since 2009. 2013 saw 10 days above the mark, while 2011 also saw the same number. Both 2011 and 2013 went on to record above average Decembers. On the other hand, there were also three days that remained in the negatives. This was the equal highest number of occurrences, along with October 2012. 2012 went on to record a cold November and December.

Daily minimums and maximums against rainfall at Jyväskylä Airport for October 2014

Rainfall measurements differed a bit between my recordings and those by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. I recorded 87.9mm for the month, while FMI records state 76mm fell. Either way, both readings were above last year's figure of 60mm, as well as the 1981-2010 average of 66mm.

Based on my recordings, the wettest day was October 19. A total of 26.4mm fell then. It was also the second wettest day of the year. That was one of 15 days that saw precipitation. There were two periods of five consecutive rain days; October 8 to 12, and October 25 onwards. The longest dry spell was six days; October 13 to 18.

Despite the high precipitation and low temperatures, there was very little snow at any point during the month. Snow on the ground was only seen a couple of times and it never got full coverage. Snow depths greater than a few centimetres are fairly rare for Jyväskylä in October, but 2010, for example, saw a snow depth of 10cm in the middle of the month.

October 2014 Review - Sydney

For the third year in a row, Sydney saw an above average October. The month started off with some very warm daily maximums, but the arrival of a large storm system in the middle of the month dropped temperatures sharply. The system also brought damaging winds as well as the highest 24 hours to 9am October rainfall total for Sydney Airport in 54 years. Warmth returned as the month ended though leading to it being the fourth warmest on record.

The averages for the previous six Octobers can be seen below alongside the long term average.

October averages at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Both averages were comfortably above the long term figure. The average maximum of 25.0C ranked as the fourth warmest October figure since records began in 1939. The top three warmest begin with the 27.0C average recorded in 1988, followed by 2013 and 2007. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded an average minimum of 15.0C, slightly above mine. This was also the fourth warmest such figure of the past 76 years. 2005's figure of 15.5C is the record, followed by 2007 and 1999.

Five days during the month topped 30C. October 5 was the hottest of those with a top of 34.4C. This was, however, the second lowest such figure since at least 2009. October 2010 didn't see one day above 30C. The highest minimum came on October 7. The 18.4C recording then ranked as the second lowest such figure in the past six years.

The lowest maximum of 15.4C was recorded on the 15th. This was the lowest daily minimum for an October day since 2008. The coldest temperature of the month was recorded twice. October 14 and 16 saw it drop just below 10C to 9.9C. This was the second highest respective figure in the years since 2009.

Daily minimums and maximums (left axis) against rainfall (right) at Sydney Airport for October 2014

October 2014 was above average in terms of rainfall and the wettest since 2009. A total of 118.8mm fell during the calendar month. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded 118.6mm. This figure is well above the long term average of 70.7mm. It was the third wettest month seen so far this year after August and March.

The month saw a total of eight rain days. There were two streaks of three rain days. Eight was also the number for the longest dry streak; from the 16th onwards. The few days prior to that saw very heavy falls as a large storm and low pressure system affected the New South Wales coast. October 14 saw 86.0mm at the Airport, the highest daily total this year. BOM's 24 hours to 9am total on the 15th was 101.0mm. This was the highest such October total since 109.0mm was recorded on the morning of October 22 way back in 1960.

The storm system that struck Sydney across October 13, 14 and 15 also brought very strong and destructive winds. The maximum wind gust for the 13th measured 76km/h. The late evening of the 14th saw southerly winds increase, and a maximum gust of 107km/h was recorded at the Airport. This is the strongest since at least the start of last year. Winds continued into the early hours of the 15th with a 102km/h gust recorded then. The calmest day was the 23rd. A strongest gust of only 28km/h was measured on that day.

Frost and wet snow in Jyväskylä, storms end hot run in Sydney

After a rather warm start to the week in Finland, temperatures dropped sharply once again towards the end. From 11.8C very early on Wednesday October 28, they declined to -9.5C by yesterday morning.

The sub-zero temperatures and high humidity yesterday led to widespread frost in Jyväskylä. With no wind and the accompanying sun, it was a really beautiful day.

The sun lighting up frost in Taulumäki on November 1

Clear skies and sun dominated the day

Temperatures briefly exceeded 0C on November 1, but frost in shaded areas remained

A warm front ahead of another low pressure system moving east across the Nordic region drove temperatures up in the early hours of today. It also brought precipitation. Some snow is on the ground around Jyväskylä today, but it's patchy due to most of the precipitation falling as wet snow. Temperatures will climb further as today wears on and they'll remain around 9C tomorrow before another drop back to around 0C by Thursday November 6.

The end of October and first day of November were hot in Sydney. Sydney Airport recorded three consecutive days above 30C for the first time since the end of January. With a maximum of 37.0C, yesterday was also the hottest day of the year, beating the 36.8C recording from January 2. December 20 last year was the previous day hotter than yesterday. That 37.0C recording came off the back of tops of 32.9C and 31.9C for the final two days of October.

A change arrived yesterday evening though. Storms and showers were predicted across the Sydney region throughout the late afternoon. Sydney Airport avoided the worst and only recorded 1.0mm of rain. A maximum wind gust of 76km/h was also seen.

Other areas fared worse. It was wind gusts, rather than rain, that caused the most damage. Isolated and powerful wind gusts were seen at various locations across Sydney. Sydney Olympic Park saw a maximum gust of 100km/h as a storm cell ripped through the area. This is the strongest gust seen there since at least the start of October last year. Penrith, in Sydney's west, also saw its strongest gust in more than a year with a 93km/h recording.

The change dropped temperatures from around 20C at midnight to 13.2C this morning. This was the coldest temperature seen at the Airport in two weeks. Like today, tomorrow should be a little cool also, before temperatures climb again on Tuesday and Wednesday.