Cool change on the way for Jyväskylä

Finns probably shouldn't get the outdoor furniture ready just yet. The current streak of warmer than average temperatures and the feel of spring looks like it will come to an end this weekend. There are only a few clumps of snow left in Jyväskylä and most of the roads and paths are dry thanks to 6 consecutive days above 4C.

Today has been the warmest of the month so far and the warmest since October 29 last year. It reached 8.5C just before 3pm. Yesterday got to 5.9C while tomorrow should also reach 8-9C. Not a single March day between 2009 and 2013 had a temperature recorded above 8C in Jyväskylä.

Elsewhere in Finland today, weather stations in Tampere and at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport almost hit 11C and at Jomala in the Åland Islands it got to 13C.

The gravel and small rocks placed on footpaths during the winter have been drying out over the last week. As a result, it has been incredibly dusty in Jyväskylä, and elsewhere in Finland. Warnings about poor air quality have been issued throughout this week while efforts to clean the streets have already started, something not typically done until late April. Air quality warnings can be seen via the Ilmanlaatuportaali website.

Those small rocks might come in handy this weekend though. Forecasts are predicting a cold change to hit some time on Saturday. Westerly winds should pick up on Friday before shifting to the east on Saturday and later to cold northerly winds during Saturday night. Temperatures will drop below zero and there should be snow throughout most of the southern half of the country from late Saturday and potentially all the way into early next week. I've seen reports predicting as much as 20cm of snow in some locations in the south.

Next week will be much cooler than the past few with long term forecasts showing temperatures dipping below -5C during the nights and up to only -2C during the day.

Warm weather continues

Both Sydney and Jyväskylä enjoyed warm weather during the weekend and today, although on a slightly different scale.

Today was the fourth day in a row above 28C at Sydney Airport. After Saturday's 28.6C, it was only just lower at 28.2C yesterday. Although still below 30C, today went a little higher to 29.5C. Today's minimum of 21.8C is now the warmest of the month, equal third warmest of the year, and the highest since February 12.

Wind speeds were moderate for most of today along the coast. Sydney Airport recorded a top gust of only 41km/h. There was a brief shower early yesterday morning, but otherwise no falls have been recorded in the past few days.

After the rain and wet snow of Saturday morning, the rest of the weekend turned out quite nicely for most of Finland. Temperatures topped 4.8C at Jyväskylä Airport on Saturday. It was warmer, and especially sunny in the afternoon, on Sunday with 6.6C. Today also reached 6.6C.

Continuing on from recent weeks, these temperatures have been well above average. As a comparison, March 9 last year ranged between -20.6C and -8.9C. In the past 6 years, this is earliest time for such temperatures as well. The 10C barrier was broken in Kokemäki yesterday, 40km south east of Pori. This was the first time in Finland so far this year. It reached 10.8C there in the late afternoon.

Forecasts of 7C and 8C for Jyväskylä are still valid for the remainder of the week. Early forecasts for next week though show a return to more typical March temperatures around 0-2C.

No change for Jyväskylä, warm and slightly unsettled in Sydney

I feel like I've been saying it for quite a while now, but Jyväskylä's mild weather hasn't let up in the last few days. It reached 2.3C on Thursday and yesterday topped 4.7C. Cloud has been around for most of this week and humidity rose yesterday morning to around 90%.

A mixed front moved east across Finland yesterday between Oulu and Jyväskylä. In Jyväskylä there was a hint of rain in the air, but only 0.5mm was recorded at the Airport. Rain was mostly affecting areas north of the city where the front passed through.

Yesterday's daily minimum of 1.4C was also unusually high. Including yesterday there have been 9 days so far this year with minimums at or above 0C. That's compared to 2 in 2009 up until March 7, 1 in 2013 and none for 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Another band of precipitation moved east early this morning. Jyväskylä has seen more falls this time round. Between 3am and 8am 4.6mm fell and there is more on the way in the coming hours.

The next few days will see even higher temperatures. It could go as high as 7C in Jyväskylä in the coming couple of days and 8C is currently forecast for next Wednesday. The sun should also make a welcome appearance.

The typical, unsettled weather that Sydney usually sees towards the end of summer has finally been around during the last few days. There was some more storm activity in the Sydney region yesterday.

The 7 days prior to yesterday saw falls at the Airport. The Airport and city didn't see any falls yesterday, but a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for suburbs in Western Sydney in the afternoon. Horsley Park received 13.0mm and 10.4mm was recorded at Badgerys Creek. Locations in the Blue Mountains received fairly heavy falls also. Mount Boyce, just north of Blackheath, received 38.2mm, the highest daily recording there since June 26 last year.

It reached 28.1C at the Airport yesterday and it was still almost 24C at midnight. Today got to 28.6C. The next few days should see pretty similar weather. There is the chance of showers and storms until mid-week.

Dangerous storm hits Sydney's Eastern Suburbs

Today was one of those days I wish I was in Sydney. It was a nice, warm day that topped 30.7C at the Airport and it ended with a spectacular and menacing looking storm.

A low pressure trough moved north-east across New South Wales today generating showers and storm activity throughout the state. Warm northerly winds took the temperature up in Sydney during the middle of the day, but around 4:30pm a southerly change preceded an intense storm.

As a storm cell developed south west of the Airport, the Bureau issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for suburbs surrounding Sydney Airport warning of lightning strikes, heavy rain and potential flash flooding. The screenshot below is of the Sydney rain radar image at 4:36pm.

Terry Hills 128km rain radar image at 4:36pm AEST on March 5 2014
Source: Bureau of Meteorology (screenshot unedited from original image)

To get an idea of what the storm looked like, check out the photos in this Daily Telegraph gallery.

Sydney Airport received 13.0mm in the hour between 4:30pm and 5:30pm and experienced wind gusts up to 59km/h, the strongest since February 10. Only 1.6mm fell at Observatory Hill as the Eastern Suburbs were the worst affected. Aircraft enroute to Sydney were also kept in a holding pattern until the storm moved on.

There may be more shower and storm activity for Sydney early tomorrow morning.

February 2014 Review - Jyväskylä

Jyväskylä experienced one of the warmest Februaries on record in 2014. Temperatures throughout Finland were well above average for pretty much the whole month. This article released by the Finnish Meteorological Institute states that southern and central parts of the country were 6-8C warmer than normal, while some places in the north were even 9C above average. Rainfall was fairly average, but because of such high temperatures, snow depths were some of the lowest on record.

The graph below shows February averages at Jyväskylä Airport during the last 6 years.

February averages at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2014

February 2014 was easily the warmest of the last 6 years. In fact, Jyväskylä saw its second warmest February since at least 1961. The average temperature of -1.4C was 7.1C higher than the 1981-2010 figure of -8.5C. Only 1990 had a higher average temperature.

The warmest temperature of the month of 5.8C came on February 24. That was the earliest date for such a high temperature in the past 6 years. The warmest minimum of 3.1C, also recorded on the 24th, was the highest figure of the past 6 years as well.

Cold days were rare. February 1 was responsible for both the lowest monthly temperature and the lowest daily maximum, -10.6C and -6.8C respectively. And as I mentioned previously, that was coming off the back of the 3 week cold snap in January.

The dates above were also responsible the highest and lowest monthly temperature at a national level. The highest temperature was recorded in Pori on February 24 when it reached 8.1C. The lowest monthly temperature was -37.5C, recorded at Kiutaköngäs, north of Kuusamo, on February 1.

There were 2 key observations during the month that really stand out. One was the lack of days below -10C, and the other was the number of days above zero. The graph below highlights this.

Number of  February days below -10C and above 0C for the period 2009-2014

Precipitation was slightly below average for the month. I made a plan at the beginning of the year to start recording daily precipitation for both Sydney and Jyväskylä, but there appeared to be some problem with the equipment at Jyväskylä Airport and the measurements via the FMI website were unavailable for most of the month.

Looking at the FMI records though, 25mm was recorded. That is compared to 22mm last year and the 1981-2010 average of 32mm. Due to the warm temperatures seen throughout this winter snow depths have been unusually low. On February 15 the depth was only 12cm, well below last year's 49cm and the average of 42cm. By the end of the month, most paths were clear of snow and were even dry.

February 2014 Review - Sydney

Temperatures in Sydney for February were slightly above average for 2014. It was slightly warmer than both 2012 and 2013, but cooler than 2010 and 2011. It was a little dry though with Sydney Airport recording just under half the long term average. Despite being rather dry, the average daily sunshine of 6.5 hours was below the long term average of 7.1.

The graph below shows February averages at Sydney Airport during the last 6 years.

February averages at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

Both the average minimum and maximum were the third highest since 2009. Like the previous 5 years, February 2014's averages were also above the long term figures of 19.0C and 26.4C.

February's warmest day was the 26th when it got to 34.9C, one of only 3 days of the month above 30C. The highest minimum of 22.3C came on February 12. This was the lowest of the past 6 years. The lowest monthly temperature of 15.9C, the second lowest of the past 6 years, was recorded on the 7th. The last day of the month was responsible for the coolest daily maximum of only 21.9C.

Sydney Airport saw a monthly rainfall total of 56.0mm, just under half the long term average of 113.3mm. It was the third driest February out of the last 10. Observatory Hill recorded 61.0mm, just over half the long term average of 118.3mm. The graph below shows the daily rainfall totals for the month.

Daily rainfall totals during February 2014

There were 11 days on which rain was recorded at the Airport. The wettest day was February 19 when a total of 23.2mm fell. That was due to a large storm that affected Sydney and surrounding regions late in the afternoon.

Only 3 days of the month recorded wind gusts over 60km/h. The 76km/h south-southwesterly gust on February 10 was the strongest of the month. This is the strongest of the year so far, but was below February 2013's strongest of 91km/h. Both February 14 and 18 recorded the weakest daily gust of 31km/h.

Dry in Jyväskylä, wet in Sydney

Dry weather has continued in Jyväskylä during the last few days. Temperatures haven't been quite as high as early last week, but March has still seen an above average start to the month. The sun was out for most of yesterday as it reached 2.8C.

I said more than a week ago that the ice thickness has been decreasing, but as I found out yesterday, the ice on Jyväskylä's Jyväsjärvi is still thick enough to walk on.

Ice on Jyväsjärvi on March 1

Testing out the ice

Interesting patterns from old footprints

In Sydney it has been a wet weekend. Sydney Airport saw one of the lowest 3 day totals in the Sydney region. Since Friday 12.6mm has fallen there. Elsewhere in Sydney, Observatory Hill has seen 21.6mm since Friday while Bankstown Airport and Penrith saw greater 3 day totals of 39.6mm and 35.4mm respectively.

On the Central Coast north of Sydney there was flash flooding in localities around Lake Macquarie on Friday morning. The weather station at Cooranbong just west of the Pacific Motorway recorded a staggering 222.2mm throughout the day; 206.2mm of that fell in the 9 hours between midnight and 9am.