Bye bye snow

Jyväskylä has been increasingly wet and sloshy over the past 48hrs as warm temperatures continue to melt more than 10cm of snow. Warm air is being pushed all the way to Finland from off the west coast of Africa. This warm air has been causing temperatures to rise in the United Kingdom and across the Nordic countries.

Many locations in Finland topped 5C yesterday, including Oulu, 310km north of Jyväskylä, where it reached 8.2C. The maximum temperature for Jyväskylä was 4.1C. This overtook December 3's monthly maximum of 3.9C and it was the warmest day since November 27. In the years since 2008, only 2011 has seen temperatures this warm this late in December. Yesterday's minimum of 0.9C was also the warmest in 3 weeks. Today's current minimum of 1.7C is even warmer.

The warm temperatures haven't been good for those hoping for a white Christmas. Most of the snow has melted already and long term forecasts aren't looking good with warm temperatures expected next week also.

Wet and icy paths were a common sight in Jyväskylä today as a result of warmer temperatures

The ugly side of winter showed itself today

The last two days in Sydney have been quite nice. Temperatures there have continued in the high 20s with 29.4C yesterday and 27.0C today. 27C is forecast for tomorrow also, although it should be slightly cooler over the weekend.

I didn't point it out in my previous post, but Tuesday's 34.4C in Sydney was the 3rd warmest December day in the period from 2009. December last year saw 2 days which were warmer; 36.2C on December 1 and 34.6C on December 20.

Don't always believe the forecast

So in my post yesterday I commented that Sunday December 8 was the first day with a maximum below -5C and that yesterday December 9 was the first day with a minimum below -15C. Well it looks like I spoke too soon.

The forecast at the time predicted a low of -19C by 2am this morning having dropped to -17C by 11pm yesterday. Shortly after I submitted my post, the forecast had been revised to -16C by 2am. Another hour later and it was revised to -12C.

So the lesson here is to not always believe the forecast 100% of the time (probably something we all know already). I have updated the table from yesterday's post, as shown below. Long term forecasts for warmer weather in the coming weeks might mean Jyväskylä will wait until January to fill that box.

FMI releases a daily map image showing temperature distribution throughout Finland during 24 hours from 8am to 8am. The image below is today's edition for low temperatures.

Minimum temperatures throughout Finland between 8am 9.12.2013 and 8am 10.12.2013
Source: Finnish Meteorological Insitute

So it turns out that Jyväskylä, shown by the red dot, wasn't far off having those colder temperatures. In Kuopio, 120km to the north east of Jyväskylä, it was around -21C this morning. In many locations further east and to the north it went below -30C.

Sydney also defied forecasts today. The forecast yesterday predicted a top of 28C, but it went well above that reaching 34.4C at the Airport. The predicted overnight low of 22C was also below the actual. In fact it hasn't gone below 24C for almost 36 hours so far. Predicted rain this morning also didn't eventuate. No stations in Sydney recorded any rainfall today.

Warmest day in a month in Sydney, coldest day in almost 9 months in Jyväskylä

Sydney returned to temperatures above 30C today for the first time in a month. The 32.0C measurement at 2:31pm was the warmest since November 8 when it reached 34.0C. The daily minimum of 20.0C was also the highest since November 22.

The prediction for last Friday of a low of 13C was right on the money. The low of 13.1C became and will probably remain as the overall monthly low. Friday's top of 21.8C is also the lowest maximum so far of the month. The weekend was warmer, slowly climbing towards today's 30C+ temperature with 25.6C for Saturday and 27.6C for Sunday. No rain fell over the weekend after 3.4mm across last Thursday and Friday.

Today in Jyväskylä has been quite cool. The maximum so far stands at -6.1C from around 4:30am. With it currently at -10C and unlikely to climb as high again this evening, it will mean this is the coldest day since March 18 when the temperature topped -6.3C. It had already dropped to -14.5C briefly earlier this evening before climbing again in the last 90 minutes.

The following table details the first dates of each winter that experienced a maximum below -5C and a minimum below -15C. Yesterday and today were responsible for this year's respective values (assuming it will drop below -15C later this evening as predicted).

This winter's values are fairly average if we consider the previous 5. The real winter isn't quite here just yet though. Overnight temperatures are predicted to drop to -19C, but rise again to the positive tomorrow evening. 3C and 2C are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

The 10 day forecast from Foreca doesn't look very good for those hoping for a white Christmas either, with it currently predicting 3C, 4C and even 5C from Sunday into early next week. FMI currently has a snow depth of 14cm for Jyväskylä Airport, but if temperatures go in the coming days and next week, it won't be there for long.

Winter has certainly arrived in Finland's far north though. In Kilpisjärvi in the far north west near the borders of Sweden and Norway, it was -37.5C earlier today. It has been -32C or below for the last 48hrs. They also have over a metre of snow!

Windy day in Sydney

Strong winds picked up this afternoon in Sydney dropping temperatures and affecting transport throughout the city.

There was a brief shower earlier in the day, but it warmed up afterwards topping 25C around midday and reaching the daily maximum of 27.5C at 2:21pm. Winds were gusting around 50km/h for most of the morning before the gusts increased to 70km/h by 2:30pm. That's when the temperature dropped.

Three westerly gusts between 3:18pm and 3:25pm measured 95km/h, matching the yearly record set on October 29. At that time it was the strongest gust in over a year. At 4pm the temperature was reading only 15.8C. The strong westerlies have continued for the last few hours and shouldn't die down until tomorrow morning.

Traffic and transport throughout the city was affected this afternoon as the winds brought down trees onto roads and rail lines. Several sets of traffic lights were blacked out also as a result of widespread power failures.

The cooler temperatures are the result of strong southerlies as part of a low pressure system which moved east over Victoria today. Cold air has been pushed from south of Tasmania, and as the southerly winds have moved further north they have eventually turned westerly.

Alpine regions in Victoria and southern New South Wales received snow today. This article has some webcam shots of the slopes at the ski resort of Thredbo. Another good example of the cold was seen at Melbourne Airport today where it was only 9.1C at 1:30pm. All I can do is ask, it's supposed to be summer, right?

Showers might affect parts of Sydney in the coming hours as some rain moves across the Blue Mountains. Temperatures tomorrow should only reach a top of 21C after a cool overnight low of 13C.

November 2013 Review - Sydney

Sydney experienced an above average November this year. Both the average minimum and maximum were comfortably above the long term averages. Despite that, the average minimum was the lowest in the period since 2009. Looking at the Bureau of Meteorology's records, it was actually the lowest average minimum in the last decade. The following table shows the averages since 2009.

November averages at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2013

While the average minimum was clearly the lowest, the average maximum was right in the middle of the 5 year period. Long term averages stand at 15.4C and 24.0C. As for the extremes, the highest temperature of the month occurred on November 3 when it reached 34.9C. This was again the median for the 5 years. The coldest temperature of the month was a few days later when it dropped to 11.9C on November 6.

The lowest maximum of 18.2C was on November 17, also the median for 2009-2013 period, and the highest minimum of 20.1C occurred on November 22. This was the second lowest of the period. Only just though, thanks to 2011's 20.0C.

Another thing to point out is that November actually had a lower average maximum than both September (25.1C) and October (26.2C). The graph below highlights November's lack of warm days in comparison to the previous 2 months.

Number of days above certain temperatures for September to November 2013

Rainfall for the month was quite high. The monthly total of 180.4mm easily surpassed the average of 81.2mm. Only 4 Novembers since 1929 have seen greater totals. It was also the highest November total since 1984 when 362.4mm was recorded. The bulk of the rain fell across November 15 and 16. The late evening of November 15 saw 58.2mm fall in only 2 hours as heavy showers and storms affected most of Sydney.

November 2013 saw a few windy days, although the maximum gust wasn't quite as strong as previous months. A wind gust of 78km/h was recorded twice, only a few days apart on November 22 and 25. July was the previous month with a lower maximum gust, 67km/h.

On a national scale, a climatologist at BoM released an article on December 1 detailing Australia's warmest spring on record. In a way this seems like a sensationalist headline though as it should be noted that the average for the whole 2013 season was the highest above a 1961-1990 average used by BoM, discounting years prior to 1961 and only taking into account records from 1991 onwards. However, with the gradual warming experienced in the last century it certainly sounds like it was indeed the warmest spring on record.

November 2013 Review - Jyväskylä

2013's edition of November was rather warm in Jyväskylä with above average maximums and an overall above average average temperature (i.e. average of all minimums and maximums). The average minimum was cooler than the previous two years though. The table below details the averages since 2008.

November averages in Jyväskylä for the period 2008-2013

The average maximum for November was the second warmest in the past 6 years, whereas the average minimum was almost in the middle, the third coldest. The difference between the minimum and maximum average is actually the highest of the last 6 years, further highlighting the up and down temperatures I referred to in my previous post.

If we look at averages over a longer period, the Finnish Meteorological Institute has an average average temperature for November in Jyväskylä of -2.0C between 1981 and 2010. This year's figure according to my numbers was 0.8C. This is lower than 2011 and 2012, but still well above the long term figure.

The highest temperature for November was 7.9C, recorded on the first day of the month. This was pretty normal if we look at the previous 5 years. The highest minimum of 4.3C occurred on November 16, a day before the storm known as Eino hit Finland.

The lowest temperature was, not surprisingly, later in the month, -13.3C on November 26. Only 2010 had lower minimums than that in the 2008 to 2013 period. The day before that, the 25th, was responsible for the lowest daily maximum, -1.6C. This was actually the highest of the past 6 years, as shown in the graph below.

Lowest maximums in November for the period 2008-2013

As mentioned above, Eino hit Finland on October 17. It brought damaging winds to most parts of the country. Coastal locations in the south and west, as well as inland locations in Eastern Finland, experienced the strongest winds. According to FMI, Jyväskylä experienced a strongest gust of 19.2m/s. This wasn't quite as strong as the 32.9m/s (118km/h) gust at Kaskinen on the west coast. There were a few other windy days this month, notably November 5, 18 and 28.

Rainfall was above the 1981-2010 average. There was 75mm recorded compared to the average of 54mm. November 4 and 5 contributed a large amount to that total with 30mm recorded across those two days. Snow also fell a few times towards the end of the month. November 21 saw heavy falls with almost 10cm. Plus temperatures have caused most of it to melt away, but there was still a small amount of snow on the ground at the end of month.

Snow and wind in Jyväskylä, cool weekend in Sydney

A good amount of snow fell in Jyväskylä over the weekend. Saturday saw the biggest falls before more snow arrived on Sunday morning and again in the afternoon. The Jyväskylä weather station in Tikkakoski currently has a reading of 4cm, but there appears to be slightly more than that outside. If it weren't for temperatures pushing above zero yesterday there would be more.

A good amount of snow fell in Jyväskylä on November 30

Saturday was only the 4th day of November entirely below zero, reaching -0.6C. December started off yesterday with the kind of temperature you'd prefer not to see here at this time of year, reaching 1.0C. Temperatures declined yesterday afternoon as strong northerly and northwesterly winds made their way east across Finland. I saw a wind gust recording of 19m/s (68km/h) at 6:20pm, which was stronger than the strongest gust from last Thursday's brief snow storm. It was -12.3C this morning thanks to those cold northerlies and clear skies.

Sun greeting Jyväskylä this morning as the thermometer read -8C

Temperatures in Jyväskylä during the last several days have been a bit like a yo-yo. A few low pressure systems have been moving east through the northern half of Finland in the last week, resulting in a combination of cold and warm air. Northerly winds have been blowing cold air from the Arctic, but westerly and southwesterly winds are resulting in warmer temperatures. The next few days will see a similar pattern. It should rise to 2C tomorrow, but drop below -10C in the early hours of Wednesday before reaching only -6C in the afternoon.

It has still been relatively cool in Sydney. November ended with another day below average, getting to only 21.6C. December didn't start too differently, getting slightly warmer and reaching 22.7C. Today has been warmer though going above 25C to 25.6C. Daily minimums were also below average during the weekend, with Saturday's 14.4C helping to drop November's average minimum further. Sunday's minimum was also below 15C at 14.9C.

There isn't anything too spectacular showing in Sydney's forecast for the next week. Fairly average weather is expected with Wednesday being the pick of the next few days with sunny conditions and a predicted top of 29C.