Mixed weather in Sydney, warm in Jyväskylä but change on the way

Sydney has seen some up and down weather during the last few days. There has been a mix of sun and warm temperatures, but also some showers and cooler weather.

Thursday reached a top of 30.1C at Sydney Airport, making it the warmest day of the month. In addition to that, it was the equal second highest April temperature recorded in the past 6 years. April 23 in 2010 hit 30.2C. Finally, it was also the latest date before winter for a day above 30C, equalling April 24 2010 when it got to 30.0C. Sydney is unlikely to see a day above 30C for the next 4 months.

Temperatures dropped on Friday as southerly winds returned. It only reached 21.9C. Some showers in the middle of the day resulted in 4.8mm being recorded at the Airport. This broke an 8 day streak without rain.

Yesterday was slightly warmer getting to 24.8C, but showers and cooler temperatures returned today. Rainfall distribution today was somewhat uneven. Observatory Hill received 20.6mm, far greater than the total of 2.4mm at the Airport. The currently monthly totals differ quite a lot also. The Airport has seen 69.2mm while 114.2mm has been recorded at Observatory Hill.

Sky in Jyväskylä during the afternoon of April 27

The weather has been very pleasant in Jyväskylä. Warm spring temperatures have continued and rain has also stayed away. Yesterday was the warmest day of the month so far, and with current forecasts it looks like it will remain that way. It reached 17.3C in the late afternoon. With hardly any wind, shorts and a t-shirt were reasonably comfortable. Friday was also warm getting to 17.1C.

Some overnight temperatures have been unusually low though. Early Thursday morning saw it drop to -6.6C. This is the latest time in the year before summer for a temperature below -6C in the past 6 years. This morning dropped to around -3C as well.

Today has been the 9th consecutive day without rain. A change should come tomorrow though and temperatures for the next week will be lower than what has been seen recently. Rain should also make a return. People hoping to spend May Day outside in the sun will be disappointed to see the current forecast of 6C and rain. And that had been revised from this morning when it said 2C and wet snow...

Warm couple of days for both cities

Jyväskylä has continued its warm spring weather. Yesterday topped 17.1C at Jyväskylä Airport. It was the earliest date for a temperature recorded above 15C in the past 6 years, beating 2011's mark of April 23. Yesterday's minimum of 4.2C was also the second earliest date for a minimum above 4C. 2011 retains its hold on that figure thanks to a 4.3C recording on April 17.

In addition to the above average temperatures, it has been quite dry throughout this month. Other than the 3 days of April 11, 13 and 14 which accounted for 22.1mm of rain, the rest of the month has only seen 1.8mm.

Warm temperatures have seen lake ice disappear almost completely. Tuomiojärvi, one of the lakes just north of the city, was pretty much devoid of ice yesterday. You'll only find a few signs of snow and ice in places hidden from the sun. Plants and trees have started coming to life as well, and I even spotted a few bees around yesterday for the first time this year.

Catkins on a goat willow in Jyväskylä on April 21

The yellow flowers of coltsfoot have also started to appear

Sydney has enjoyed some warm autumn weather in the past couple of days. It reached 25.4C this afternoon at the Airport after tops of 24.0C and 23.7C on Sunday and Monday. Despite that, minimum temperatures have been at their lowest for several months; the past 3 days have recordings below 13C.

Another observation that is somewhat surprising is that today was the sixth consecutive day at the Airport without rain. This was after a run of 7 days with rain recorded. Sydney hasn't observed a 6 day period without rain in the past 2 and a half months. January 29 to February 3 was the last time.

The next couple of days should be quite nice with daily maximums of 26C and 27C forecast along with mostly sunny conditions. It is possible that showers might return during the weekend though.

Change in seasons more evident in the past week

Temperatures in both Jyväskylä and Sydney during this week have indicated a more obvious change in respective seasons.

Some key figures from the past week include:

Jyväskylä

• Today is the warmest day of the year so far, pushing above 14C. It is also the highest temperature since September 20 last year (15.7C).
• The overall average (average of minimums and maximums) since April 14 is 5.1C. The previous weekly period with a higher average was between October 27 and November 2 last year (5.4C). 
• The past 4 days have been above 10C, also the first such period since early October.

Sydney Airport

• Saw its lowest temperature of the year so far this morning with 12.3C. It is also the lowest temperature since November 6 (11.9C).
• The overall average since April 14 is 17.8C. The previously weekly period with a lower average was between September 11 and 18 last year (17.7C).
• The past week has seen only 1 day above 25C. November 25 to December 1 was the last weekly period with only 1 day above that mark.

One other thing is that today is the first day of the year where the temperatures of each city have crossed over. By this I mean that the minimum at Sydney Airport, which was 12.3C, has been beaten by Jyväskylä's maximum of 13C+. While this year is the earliest date for that to occur in the past 6 years, it is somewhat remarkable that the dates for all 6 years are contained within a 7 day period. The respective dates are below.

• 2009 - April 24 
• 2010 - April 26 
• 2011 - April 23
• 2012 - April 27
• 2013 - April 21
• 2014 - April 20

The next few days should see fairly similar temperatures for both cities as spring and autumn settle in.

A wet weekend, TC Ita wrap-up

Sydney's spell of wet weather continued during the weekend. It was a pretty horrible weekend really with strong southerly winds keeping temperatures down while there were scattered showers and mostly grey skies.

The past 3 days have had the lowest daily maximums of the year so far, with each day beating the previous mark. Saturday saw a top of 21.1C at the Airport. It only got to 20.7C yesterday and today has only reached 19.1C. This is lowest maximum since mid-November. This morning also saw the first time below 15C for the year with 13.9C at 5:50am. Of the past 6 years, this is actually the latest date for the first time below 15C.

Thursday to Sunday saw a total of 16.4mm of rain with Friday responsible for the highest daily total of 8.6mm. The monthly figure now stands at 44.4mm. As mentioned already, southerly winds were quite strong throughout the weekend. Each day from Friday to today has seen a maximum gust above 50km/h. Saturday saw the top with a south-southwesterly at 72km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Ita has charged its way south along the Queensland coast from late Friday dumping rain from Cooktown to as far south as Brisbane. Ita was downgraded to Category 4 just before crossing the coast near Cape Flattery, and further downgraded to Category 3 and then to Category 1 not long after. Ita is still classified as a Category 1 storm but it is sitting off the coast east of Rockhampton and moving in a southeasterly direction further out to sea.

As expected, strong winds and heavy rain accompanied the storm. Cape Flattery saw a strongest gust of 159km/h at 9pm on Friday. That's about 44m/s, far beyond the strongest gust ever recorded in Finland. The weather station there has been out of action since 10pm on Friday. Cooktown saw a strongest gust of 122km/h just after midnight. A total of 197.8mm fell there during the 72 hour period from 9am on the 10th.

Cooktown copped the brunt of the wind and damage is evident there with trees down and roofs torn off buildings. Flooding has been a concern in many towns further south along the coast as rivers and catchment areas swell as a result of the heavy rain. Some roads and bridges are closed and the town centre of Innisfail has been split in two. A large gallery of images from the affected regions can be found here.

On the other side of the world, Jyväskylä escaped the rain on Saturday, but Friday and Sunday saw the 2 highest daily totals of the year so far. Coincidentally, the current trend of pleasant Saturdays continued. The past 4 have actually been really nice with warm temperatures and mostly clear skies. Saturday saw the highest temperature of the month so far with 10.6C. Friday, however, saw 7.0mm at Jyväskylä Airport and the second lowest daily maximum, while Sunday saw 7.6mm.

Category 5 Ita bears down on North Queensland Coast

Despite initial forecasts predicting a peak intensity of Category 4, Tropical Cyclone Ita was upgraded by the Bureau of Meteorology to a Category 5 storm yesterday afternoon. This is the highest ranking on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.

Unfortunately for residents in Far North Queensland the track map for Ita has also been adjusted. The adjustment is shown below. This new track combined with the increase in intensity could be devastating for communities and towns in Ita's path. The storm will weaken as it moves inland but strong winds and heavy rain are very likely.

Tropical Cyclone Ita Forecast Track Map at 3:59pm AEST on April 11 2014
Source: Bureau of Meteorology (image unedited from original)

Residents in the region have been preparing for the storm for the last couple of days. They have also been advised to seek shelter this evening as the storm moves south along the coast. BoM has informed that Ita could produce winds up to 300km/h near its core, with gales up to 185km/h extending outwards from the centre.

Of the BoM weather stations in the region, Cape Flattery has recorded the strongest wind gust so far with 115km/h at 4:13pm. It is currently 4:40pm and Ita is inching its way closer to the coast. Due to the time of the storm hitting populated areas, it won't be until tomorrow before the extent of the damage is known. Let's hope everyone stays safe.

Cold morning in Jyväskylä, rain returns to Sydney

Temperatures early this morning in Jyväskylä dipped below -10C for the first time this month. It was also the first time in over 3 weeks that it dropped below that mark. A high pressure system has been moving east across the Nordic countries during this week. Clear skies with low overnight temperatures has been the result.

Of the past 6 years, this morning was the second latest date in the first half of a year for a recording below -10C, something that is somewhat surprising considering the unseasonal warmth in Finland recently.

Latest dates with minimum below -10C for winters from 2008/09 to 2013/14

Today is likely to be the last time below -10C until late October or November. Forecasts show a lowest minimum in the coming days of -1C. There might also be some rain around.

Wet weather has once again returned to Sydney. Tuesday and Wednesday saw no falls at the Airport, the first two day period without rain in almost 3 weeks. There were showers earlier today, however, and a band of rain extending through the south east of the country arrived in the evening. Today saw a total of 4.0mm at the Airport.

Cooler temperatures have also continued. Today made it a week without a day above 25C at the Airport. This hasn't happened since the 7 day period between October 26 and November 1 last year.

Rain should continue tomorrow while the weekend could see a few showers as well. Autumn temperatures should also continue. BoM's current Sydney forecast shows no days above 25C for the next week.

Severe Tropical Cyclone threatens Far North Queensland

A severe tropical cyclone has been slowly intensifying in the north Coral Sea just off the south eastern tip of Papua New Guinea during the last few days. Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently a Category 3 storm moving west towards the far north coast of Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts the storm to intensify further to a Category 4 storm as it approaches the coast. There are already comparisons to Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which hit south of Cairns as a Category 5 storm at the beginning of February in 2011. So far it has followed a fairly similar sequence of events to the destructive Yasi, but Ita has been developing further north and current tracks predict the storm to make landfall further up the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ita Forecast Track Map at 4:44pm AEST on April 9 2014
Source: Bureau of Meteorology (image unedited from original)

If Ita does follow the current forecast as shown in the above image, it should avoid any major population centres. There are very few towns and settlements in that area of the country, but nearby locations like Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns are likely to see effects of the storm as it moves south. People living in the direct path of the storm and in surrounding areas have been told to prepare for extensive damage from very destructive winds as well as possible flooding due to tidal surges and heavy rain.

Updated information on the storm can be found here on the BoM website.

Temperatures stabilise in Jyväskylä, drop in Sydney

The first week of April has been slightly cooler than the end of last month. Temperatures have sort of stabilised and are still well above zero, but the average maximum for the month so far is just below that of the last 2 weeks of March. The first 6 days failed to go above 5C, but for the third weekend in a row, Saturday was a nice day with 9.5C.

It has been mostly dry as well. Only 1.6mm has fallen in the past 2 weeks. A 5 hour period early yesterday morning accounted for 1.2mm of that, most of it falling as snow. Isolated showers passed through Central Finland on April 3 also, but Jyväskylä avoided any significant falls.

Isolated showers around Jyväskylä on April 3

Weakened Jyväsjärvi ice on April 3

Sydney Airport saw its lowest daily maximum of the year so far yesterday. It only got to 21.3C in the late morning. It was also the lowest daily maximum since November 26. Today's low of 16.6C is the lowest in almost 3 weeks as well. Southerly winds have been dominant since the start of the weekend. Saturday saw a gust of 70km/h, the strongest in a week and a half.

Wet weather has continued with showers accompanying the cooler temperatures. In addition to the low daily maximum yesterday, it was also the 4th wettest day of the year. A total of 19.6mm was recorded, most of it falling during the afternoon. Including today, only 1 day of the past 18 has been without rain.

March 2014 Review - Jyväskylä

Like December and February during the winter period, Jyväskylä saw a very warm and above average March. March last year was exceptionally cold, but the average maximum for 2014 was more than 7C higher. It felt like spring came early and, like February, the month ended up as the second warmest since at least 1961. The warm weather also brought along dry conditions resulting in below average precipitation.

March averages at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2014

According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Jyväskylä saw its equal second warmest March on record. Only 2007 was warmer, with 1920 its equal.

During the previous 5 years, the highest recorded March temperature at Jyväskylä Airport was 7.2C in 2011. March 2014 beat that by almost 5C with a top of 12.1C on the 29th. The highest minimum of 2.1C was recorded earlier in the month on March 13. This was also the highest such figure of the past 6 years. A brief period of cooler weather not long after saw both the coldest overall temperature and the lowest daily maximum; -17.3C on the 17th and -3.2C a couple of days later on the 19th respectively.

The highest temperature recorded in Finland was 13.5C at Jomala. Despite the month being one of the warmest on record for many locations, this figure was lower than at least 6 other months of March since 1961. The lowest temperature recorded was once again at Kilpisjärvi in the far north; -34.3C recorded on the 17th.

The warmth of March 2014 is highlighted by looking at the number of days with a minimum below -10C and the number of days with a maximum above 5C, and comparing it to previous years.

Number of March days below -10C and above 5C for the period 2009-2014

FMI reports that 28mm was recorded at Tikkakoski during the month. Despite being above last year's recording of 21mm, it was below the 1981-2010 average of 36mm. Based on recordings I took via the FMI site, I had a monthly total of 29.8mm at Tikkakoski. The day with the highest total was March 3 when 6.3mm fell, while a total of 12 days saw precipitation of some kind.

Jyväskylä spent most of March without any snow. The lack of snow was not surprising when looking at the number of days above 5C. There was some snow though. A depth of 10cm was recorded on the 20th and it stuck around for a few days. Warm temperatures towards the end of the month melted that snow quickly though and paths and roads were already being cleared of stones and sand by the last week.

March 2014 Review - Sydney

Sydney experienced a fairly warm March. As usual, temperatures were above the long term average. Of the past 6 editions of March, 2014 had the equal second highest average maximum. In addition to the warm temperatures, March also accounted for the lack of the rain in January and for most of February. It was the wettest month since November last year and fifth wettest March of the last 20 years.

The graph below shows the March averages at Sydney Airport during the last 6 years.

March averages at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014 plus the long term average

There were 3 days that topped 30C. The month's highest temperature of 30.8C came on March 18. That was the lowest such figure since 2008 when the highest March temperature was 30.2C. March 24 was responsible for the lowest daily maximum of 22.6C. This was unusually high. You have to go back to 1981 to find a higher figure. The lowest temperature of the month of 15.3C came on March 17 and the highest minimum of 21.8C was recorded on March 10.

Rain and storm activity for the month of March was high. The monthly total was more than the previous 3 months combined. A total of 151.4mm fell at Sydney Airport during the calendar month. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded 152.6mm; keeping in mind the recordings are made for the period 24 hours to 9am. It turned out to be the fifth wettest March since 1995. Elsewhere in Sydney, Observatory Hill recorded a much lower total of 102.6mm, while south of the city at Bellambi the monthly total was 290.4mm.

Daily rainfall totals during March 2014

The wettest day of the month at the Airport was the 24th, also the day with the lowest maximum, when a large storm hit the Sydney region and dumped 39.8mm. March 13 saw 32.0mm also. There were quite a few storms around throughout the month. Rain was recorded on a total of 21 days, including the first 6 and last 11 days.

The maximum daily wind gusts were down on last year's figures. A westerly gust at 72km/h recorded during the storm on the 24th was equal to last March's strongest gust, but the average of the maximum daily gusts was 5km/h less. In addition, there were 3 days with a maximum gust below 30km/h compared to none last year. March 28 saw a strongest gust of only 24km/h, the lowest such figure since July 13 last year.