Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Evening storm ends hot day in Sydney

Sydney saw its second warmest day of the year today. The measurement of 34.9C at Sydney Airport at 2:29pm was 5C above the predicted top of 30C. That was the highest temperature recorded among Sydney's weather stations. Observatory Hill got to 32.4C.

The forecast was right on at least one count though. As a low pressure tough moved east across New South Wales during the afternoon, shower and storm activity increased west and south west of the city from Orange to Cooma. A thunderstorm warning was issued by the Bureau for those areas, but was later cancelled after 6pm.

In the Sydney region, Campbelltown was the first to receive rain. 14.0mm fell between 3:30pm and 4pm. A storm cell passed through Richmond in Sydney's north west just after 7pm with brief bursts of strong winds. One gust was recorded at 70km/h, the strongest there since December 5 last year.

Further showers with thunder and lightning affected locations throughout the rest of Sydney from 6pm. Sydney Airport first recorded rain just before 7pm. By midnight a total of 6.0mm had fallen there taking the monthly total to 54.0mm. Observatory Hill received 4.4mm taking its total to 55.8mm.

Tuesday, 25 February 2014

An early spring for Finland?

Well it certainly seems like spring is just around the corner as the remarkable warmth of this February continues in Finland.

Yesterday saw temperatures above 5C in Jyväskylä for the first time this year. Another observation that is probably even more astounding is the fact that yesterday's daily minimum was 3.1C; a minimum that high doesn't usually occur for the first time until mid-April. As the table below shows, of the past 6 years yesterday was easily the earliest date for such high temperatures.



The Finnish Meteorological Institute reported yesterday that many places throughout Finland are seeing their second warmest February on record, with only 1990's edition topping this year. The warmest location in Finland yesterday was Pori on the west coast where it reached 8.1C. It went as high as 5.8C at Jyväskylä Airport. As mentioned above this was the first time above 5C this year. It was also the warmest temperature since December 17 last year.

Today has also seen warm temperatures reaching as high as 3.6C. The sun made an appearance during the day too as the sight of snow becomes rarer.

The hint of spring will be in the air for at least the next week. The coming days will still see above average temperatures, although not quite as high as yesterday and today. Temperatures for the next few nights should also dip to minus, although anything below -5C would be surprising.

Sunday, 23 February 2014

Mild weekend

Temperatures climbed back above zero in Jyväskylä early yesterday morning. That was after several centimetres of snow fell on Friday evening and into the early hours of Saturday. The top of 2.1C at Jyväskylä Airport yesterday was the warmest temperature for February so far and the warmest since January 9. Today might also see 2C or warmer; it is currently 1.8C.

Tomorrow is likely to set the highest maximum of the month again though. Earlier forecasts had predicted it to be as warm as 5C, although currently the forecast is for 4C. Tuesday should also reach around 3C. Most of the snow on the streets in the city centre of Jyväskylä has melted away and whatever is left won't be there for much longer in these conditions.

The weekend has also seen cooler, but still comfortable weather in Sydney. It didn't top 25C at Sydney Airport yesterday or today; 24.3C and 24.4C were the daily maximums. So far only 2 other days this month were cooler than yesterday. There was a brief shower earlier this morning and 0.4mm was recorded, but otherwise there hasn't been any siginificant rain. Moderate southerly winds have helped to keep temperatures down though.

Forecasts for Sydney show warmer temperatures in the next few days. There still aren't any 30C+ days on the horizon though - something that has been slightly lacking this February. There might be a few showers around throughout the week as well.

Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Unseasonal weather continues in Finland, storm activity throughout NSW

Those 3 cold weeks for Finland in January seem like a long time ago now. Since then unusually warm conditions have dominated. February last year was considered to be quite unusual with above average temperatures throughout the month, but the average minimum and maximum figures for February 2014 have been well above both the long term average and those of 2013.

The following graph compares the averages of the last 6 Februaries up to and including yesterday, February 18.

February averages at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2014 (as of February 18 2014)

So far this month there has only been 1 day below -10C, and that was coming off the back of the 3 week cold period on February 1. In addition to that, there have been 13 days above 0C already. That is compared to 2 for the whole month of February in both 2009 and 2010, 3 in 2011, 4 in 2012 and 5 in 2013. This month has also seen 2 daily minimums at or above zero. Not one daily minimum at or above zero was seen in the previous 5 Februaries.

Cloudy and wet conditions have been prominent in the past couple of weeks. The sun has disappeared and has been replaced with cloud full of snow and wet snow. Lake ice has thinned due to the warmer temperatures also.

The next couple of days, however, should see slightly cooler temperatures. Earlier this morning it already dropped below -3C for the first time since February 7 and just earlier at 7:30pm it was at -5.1C.

Storms and heavy rain swept through Sydney and surrounding regions this afternoon. A band of rain extended from as far south as Bateman's Bay to north of Newcastle. Sydney Airport saw a total of 23.2mm, which was almost as much as the 3 day total across last weekend. Observatory Hill saw exactly half that amount with only 11.6mm.

Like it was on the weekend, Gosford saw a higher total with 56.6mm. The Central Tablelands and Central West Slopes saw good falls as well. Bathurst Airport, for example, recorded 39.0mm while 28.6mm fell at Dubbo. The recording at Bathurst was highest daily fall since March 1 last year. The highest daily total for New South Wales was 99.0mm which was recorded in Newcastle at Nobby's Lighthouse.

Temperatures for Sydney just topped the predicted maximum of 29C today. Sydney Airport reached 29.3C. Tomorrow morning will be warm but a southerly change should cool things down in the afternoon as a weekend of cooler temperatures draws closer.

Tuesday, 18 February 2014

Decent falls in Sydney over the weekend

Bureau of Meteorology forecasts from last Thursday predicted up to 40mm of rain over the weekend. Sydney didn't quite get that much, but the city did receive some decent falls from Saturday morning until Monday morning.

Sunday was the wettest day at Sydney Airport with 14.0mm. That was the highest daily rainfall in almost 2 months; 15.8mm was recorded in the 24 hours to 9am on December 26 last year. The total across the 3 days was 22.6mm. Meanwhile at Observatory Hill, Sunday saw 16.8mm, also the highest daily total since Boxing Day. The total across the 3 days there was 27.8mm.

Other locations in the Sydney region received 3 day totals that were closer to the maximum potentials predicted late last week. West of the city at Penrith 32.0mm was recorded while Katoomba in the Blue Mountains received 46.6mm. Gosford, on the Central Coast north of the city, received a higher total of 49.6mm.

The monthly total at Sydney Airport now stands at 24.4mm, still well short of the long average of 113.3mm. There is currently a 90% chance of rain falling tomorrow as showers and storms develop during the afternoon. Heavy and isolated falls may occur across the Sydney Basin as an associated trough and cold front move east across New South Wales. Temperatures should still reach as high as 29C tomorrow before dropping later this week to 24C.

Thursday, 13 February 2014

Finally some rain on the way for Sydney

A band of rain pushed north east through New South Wales this evening. There haven't been any significant recordings just yet in Sydney, but totals as high as 40mm might be seen in locations around the city up until Sunday. Locations south west and west of city, like Goulburn and Bathurst, received the highest falls this evening. 11.6mm had fallen at Goulburn Airport by midnight, while Bathurst Airport's 3.8mm was its highest daily total since December 26 last year.

Just before midnight yesterday showers swept across Sydney dropping a few millimetres. Sydney Airport only received a total of 1.0mm, but Observatory Hill recorded 3.6mm. Including today, the Airport has only recorded 1.8mm this month, compared to 9.2mm at Observatory Hill and 3.2mm at Penrith, so rain will be a welcome relief from the dry conditions.

After Monday's cooler temperatures, the last 3 days have been warmer. Today's top of 29.8C was the warmest of the 3. Yesterday saw the highest monthly minimum set once again. It only dropped as low as 22.3C.

The extreme weather experienced in Australia's south east recently was further highlighted in a post made on the Bureau of Meteorology's Facebook page on Tuesday. Records have been broken across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory as a result of the heat. Using measurements up until February 11, the following statistics presented by BoM are quite interesting.

  • Melbourne's had 7 days of 40C or above; annual average is 1 day
  • Adelaide's had 11 days of 42C or above; annual average is 1 day
  • Canberra's had 19 days of 35C or above; annual average is 5.4 days

Rain is likely to fall across most of the south east of the country in the coming days, so hopefully those areas that are in desperate need of rain receive some good falls.

Monday, 10 February 2014

Grey day for Sydney, unseasonal warmth returns to Finland

Today was a grey day in Sydney. After a rather nice, sunny weekend with tops of 29.8C and 30.7C on Saturday and Sunday, it only reached a high of 23.5C today. There was plenty of cloud around and some light drizzle was seen in some parts of the city. Despite the drizzle, the dry spell has continued as no rain has been recorded. Only 0.8mm has fallen so far at Sydney Airport this month.

As usual, the cooler temperatures today were the result of southerly winds. Winds were quite strong around dawn this morning. A mild southerly change occurred between 1:30am and 2am, but winds picked up around 3:30am. A south-southwesterly gust of 76km/h at 4:37am was the strongest of the day. It was also the strongest so far this year, with the previous strongest recorded on December 29.

As predicted, weather reminiscent of mid to late December last year has returned to Finland. Yesterday reached a high of 1.8C in Jyväskylä while the daily low was right on 0C. Today has had a low of 0.3C. To put this warmth into perspective, the highest minimums from each February from 2009 up until today are shown in the table below.

Highest minimums for each February in the period 2009-2014 (as of Feb 10 2014)

Not only did yesterday have the highest February minimum of the last 6 years, but it occurred fairly early in the month. The maximum of 1.8C yesterday is also the equal second warmest of the previous 6 years, only surpassed by last year's 5.8C recorded on the last day of the month.

Saturday saw a few centimetres of snow as temperatures hovered around zero, but it turned to wet snow later in the day as warmer air moved in. Roads have mostly been cleared of snow and ice courtesy of the warmer weather, while footpaths have almost turned into ice skating tracks. More snow is predicted to fall overnight and tomorrow morning, but temperatures aren't likely to go below -1C until Friday.

Friday, 7 February 2014

January 2014 Review - Jyväskylä

January 2014 in Jyväskylä was one of two parts. The start of the month was exceptionally warm for the time of year with 9 of the first 10 days registering temperatures above zero. The warm weather ended abruptly though as temperatures dropped dramatically after January 10 and they didn't rise above -5C for the remainder of the month.

In my 2013 Yearly Review post for Jyväskylä, I mentioned that the Decembers of 2011 and 2013 were rather similar since both were unusually warm. After the warm December of 2011, averages in January 2012 then shot downwards and, following the close of January 2013, they were the second coldest in the period since 2009. I wondered if something similar might happen for January this year, and, funnily enough, the averages were almost identical. The table below shows January averages since 2009.

January averages at Jyväskylä Airport for the period 2009-2014

Despite the warm start to the month, the 2014 averages replaced 2012 as the second lowest since 2009. Coincidentally, the average maximum was identical to 2012, and the minimum only 0.2C colder. 2014's figures were also below the long term average and, according to FMI, the second lowest since 2004. FMI marked the overall average for the month at -9.9C, compared to my figure of -10.1C and the 1981-2010 average of -8.3C.

The warmest day of the month was New Year's Day, registering both the highest monthly minimum of 1.8C and the highest overall temperature of 3.5C. The middle of the 3 week cold snap saw the coldest temperatures. January 23 only reached a high of -16.1C and on the following morning of January 24, it dropped to the monthly low of -27.7C.

Strangely enough, if you were to only look at and compare the extremes of the previous 6 Januaries you might come to the conclusion that January 2013 was the second warmest. Even though the monthly averages were actually the second lowest, only 2009's extreme figures were warmer than all of the extremes mentioned above, except the monthly low, which was also eclipsed by January 2012's -26.2C.

National extremes for the month included a low of -40.7C in Utsjoki in the far north on January 20. This was the first temperature below -40C in Finland since 2012. The Åland Islands were again responsible for the highest monthly temperature; 6.1C in Långnäs on January 8.

The graph below shows the daily minimums and maximums at Jyväskylä Airport for January 2014.

Minimums and maximums at Jyväskylä Airport for January 2014

It's easy to see the clear drop in temperatures after January 10. The difference in averages further highlights the dramatic change. The first 10 days of the month had an average minimum of -1.0C and an average maximum of 1.4C. The remaining 21 days had averages of -18.8C and -11.1C.

Precipitation for the month was well below average. A monthly total of 15mm was only one third of the 1981-2010 average of 45mm. The absence of decent falls were evident in the lack of snow. The majority of the monthly total also fell in the first 10 days as rain. Snow depth in Jyväskylä on January 15 measured only 2cm. This is compared to the long term average of 30cm, and last year's total of 31cm. By the end of the month it had increased only slightly to 6cm.

The majority of the month was rather calm. There were very few windy days, and there was nothing extraordinary to note. The coldest days of the month made for some rather beautiful scenery, despite the small amount of snow. Frost covered everything outside, while the calm air kept it all in place. The sun also made quite a few appearances, only adding to the spectacle.

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

January 2014 Review - Sydney

January 2014 in Sydney was one of the driest on record. Temperatures were still above the long term average, but they were lower than some of the previous years. It could be said that January was actually quite a good, comfortable month for summer weather. There was plenty of blue sky, especially in the middle and at the end of the month, with only one hot day and only a few cooler days.

The table below shows the January averages at Sydney Airport since 2009.

January averages at Sydney Airport for the period 2009-2014

In the end this year's edition was the second coolest of the previous 6 Januaries in terms of average maximum. The long term averages of 18.8C and 26.5C were still easily eclipsed though.

The warmest day of the month was January 2 when it reached 36.8C. 3 of the past 6 Januaries have had at least 1 day above 40C. The coolest day was January 8 which had a top of only 21.6C. The lowest temperature of the month came on Australia Day, January 26, when it dropped as low as 16.6C, and the highest minimum of the month was 21.8C recorded on the 16th. This figure was actually the lowest of the previous 6 years.

January rainfall was well below average this year. The monthly total of 11.2mm at Sydney Airport was the 4th lowest on record (dating back to 1930) and the lowest since 1985. The long term average up to 2013 was 94.6mm. Rain was recorded on 10 days during the month, but the wettest day, January 22, had a recording of only 3.4mm, and on 7 of those 10 days less than 1mm was recorded.

Because the month was so dry, let's compare the 5 driest Januaries on record at Sydney Airport. The following graph shows the highest daily totals compared to monthly totals for the 5 driest years since 1930.

Highest daily and overall monthly rainfall totals for the 5 driest Januaries at Sydney Airport since 1930

Even though January 2014 wasn't the driest on record, the highest daily total figure of 3.4mm for this year is lower than any other respective figure. It's actually the lowest in all years since 1930. If we look at the number of rain days, it's also quite interesting. As I mentioned above, January 2014 had 10 days on which rain was recorded. This is compared to 3 in 1932, 4 in both 1942 and 1985, and 8 in 2003. Even January 2013 had 10 rain days, but for a far greater monthly total of 147.0mm. This just goes to show that while there was some rain around, heavy and significant falls didn't eventuate.

There weren't too many windy days during the month. The strongest gust, a northeasterly at 72km/h, was recorded on January 5. This was compared to a strongest gust in January last year of 87km/h. January 21 was responsible for the weakest daily gust at only 30km/h.

Monday, 3 February 2014

Temperatures climb in Finland, still warm and dry in Sydney

Temperatures have been steadily climbing in Jyväskylä since last Friday morning. It measured -20.6C then, and just earlier at 5pm today it was 0.3C. Yesterday, with a high of -4.4C, was the first day above -5C in over 3 weeks. From a personal point of view, -3C this morning felt almost tropical.

The weekend also saw some snow, especially on Saturday morning. Approximately 5-7cm fell around the Jyväskylä area increasing the snow depth to 11cm. These were the biggest falls since early January.

Snow falling in Jyväskylä during the afternoon of February 1

The ice of Jyväsjärvi has been thick enough for skating and skiing for a couple of weeks now

Temperatures in Jyväskylä should drop again after tomorrow, with it possibly dipping to -10C on Thursday and Friday morning, but plus temperatures could make a return on the weekend or then early next week. Long term forecasts are showing warmer than normal temperatures throughout Finland for the next 4 weeks, so a mild February is looking likely.

Sydney has continued its relatively dry summer with no falls recorded during the past 8 days at Sydney Airport. It's quite normal at this time of the year to see unsettled and stormy weather along the east coast, but significant falls just haven't eventuated.

Warm temperatures have accompanied the dry conditions since Australia Day. In the 8 days since January 26, daily maximums have ranged between 27.3C and 30.9C. Yesterday's daily minimum of 22.1C was the highest minimum in almost a year. The previous highest of 22.7C was recorded on February 26 last year. The coming couple of days should see cooler temperatures though, as well as the possibility of a few showers.

The aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Dylan, which hit the Central Queensland coast last Friday, was not as bad as had been expected - which is only good of course. Most of the strong winds that were predicted avoided local towns, and most of the damage appeared to be from the high storm tide and heavy and isolated rainfall.

A new Category 1 system, Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, is currently sitting in the far south of the Gulf of Carpentaria on the north-western coast of Queensland. There are no large towns in the area but locals have been warned about the potential for strong winds and heavy rainfall. The system isn't expected to strengthen further and should weaken by Wednesday as it moves west towards the Northern Territory.